One likely contender for the 98th Oscars has been picking up momentum that could help it steal the thunder away from One Battle After Another. The Paul Thomas Anderson film has been earning rave reviews and is the presumed frontrunner to not just get a Best Picture nomination, but to win the award.
The fact that it’s earned that notoriety even amid tough competition from the likes of Sinners, Wicked: For Good, and Marty Supreme speaks to the film’s mass appeal to the larger Oscar voting block. However, Hamnet‘s recent string of wins on the festival circuit suggests that the Shakespeare-focused drama could be quietly unseating Anderson’s movie as the Oscar frontrunner.
Hamnet Has Been Earning More And More Film Festival Wins
Hamnet is one of the likely big contenders for the 98th Academy Awards, and it’s picking up the kind of momentum it needs to unseat One Battle After Another as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Hamnet‘s premiere at Telluride was met with rave reviews, eventually going on to win the Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.
TIFF Audience Award winners are typically locks for a Best Picture nomination, with only 2011’s “Where Do We Go Now?” failing to secure a nomination since the Best Picture category was expanded to 10 films in 2009. However, the thunderous response to One Battle After Another transformed the state of the Oscar race.
The strong reception to the film shifted the Paul Thomas Anderson movie into the presumed frontrunner position for Best Picture. While critics have been lauding the PTA film and it’s expected to do well at the Academy Awards, Hamnet‘s recent Audience Award victories at the San Daniego, Virginia, Mill Valley, and Middleburg film festivals have helped it maintain momentum after its TIFF success.
While One Battle After Another seems to be a top-pick in critic circles, the success of Hamnet on the festival circuit suggests that likely award voters are celebrating the emotional film’s exploration of grief, which bodes well for the film’s award chances. The focus on the healing power of art is exactly the type of narrative filmmakers love to champion.
On top of that, the movie’s strong performances make it likely that the actor branches of the Academy will come out in support of it. The festival wins are a big boon for Hamnet, as it suggests that voters are connecting with the film in a way that the ambitious One Battle After Another might not be.
How Hamnet And One Battle After Another’s Oscar Chances Compare
It’s hard to gauge, due to the Paul Thomas Anderson film avoiding the festival circuit, but it seems likely that this streak of wins could be very fortuitous for Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel. While Sinners, Marty Supreme, and Wicked: For Good are tough competition, One Battle After Another and Hamnet have solidified themselves as Best Picture frontrunners.
On the one hand, Hamnet‘s acclaimed performances have pushed Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal to the front of the pack for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. The Academy has already given Chloé Zhao a Best Director Oscar for Nomadland, so it’s clear the voters appreciate her as a filmmaker enough that she’ll likely snag another Best Director nod.
The film is also expected to do well in plenty of below-the-line categories thanks to its strong production values and period-piece setting. This should help it clean up in categories like Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, and Original Score.
The festival wins suggest voters are connecting with the film on an emotional level, which could push Hamnet ahead. However, that’s not to say the Paul Thomas Anderson film is out of the running. Hamnet has yet to be released to the wider public, whereas One Battle After Another has been a hit for Warner Bros. since debuting in September.
This means the film will likely be heading to home video and streaming just in time for Oscar voting, giving it a potential leg-up over Hamnet among the general voting population. The broader and often absurd tone of the film also makes it more entertaining, which could be an advantage over Hamnet‘s tearjerker approach.
Paul Thomas Anderson is considered long overdue for award recognition, which could give him an edge over relatively recent winner Zhao in the Best Director race. The film’s technical elements also make it a strong contender for Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Film Editing, and Original Score
The timely political nature of the film may also help keep One Battle After Another at the top of the pack. This is on top of a number of Gotham Award nominations, suggesting that the indie circles of award voters still see plenty of reason to keep Chase Infiniti, Benecio del Toro, and Teyana Taylor thriving in the actor races.
One Battle After Another likely has a bigger award season push coming courtesy of Warner Bros., which may overwhelm momentum for Neon’s Hamnet. Both films have been critical darlings since they first screened, but One Battle After Another‘s more bombastic approach, big-name stars, and blockbuster elements may keep it in the voters’ minds longer than Hamnet‘s grip on their hearts.
The key may be if Hamnet‘s recent string of festival wins propel it forward at precursor awards that help inform eventual Oscar nominees and winners. If the festival wins keep racking up for Hamnet, then Zhao’s film may truly move past One Battle After Another as the frontrunner for the next Oscars.
8/10
- Location
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Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
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March 15, 2026
- Website
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https://www.oscars.org/
