As the Grammys near, the race for Best New Artist is getting more intense. The award is known to make or break careers, with one popular conspiracy claiming winners have short-lived success after taking home the trophy.
However, many winners have proven that theory wrong, including Christina Aguilera, Mariah Carey, and The Beatles. There’s a new slew of nominees for the 2026 award, each anticipating hearing their name called. However, some seem more likely to win than others.
Who Are The Nominees
This year, there are a variety of nominees for the Best New Artist category. Olivia Dean, Alex Warren, Lola Young, Addison Rae, Leon Thomas III, KATSEYE, The Marías, and Sombr make up the category for 2026. Olivia Dean released her second studio album, The Art of Loving, in September 2025 and became a breakout star of the year.
Songs like “Man I Need” and “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” gained her critical acclaim and a devoted fanbase. Alex Warren also had a major year with his debut single “Ordinary.” The song spent 10 nonconsecutive weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100.
Lola Young became a viral sensation with “Messy,” and Addison Rae officially became the pop star she’d been wanting to be for years. The former TikTok star dropped her debut album and graced the cover of Rolling Stone, drawing further comparisons to an early 2000s Britney Spears. Leon Thomas, on the other hand, snuck up on the industry.
After his time on Nickelodeon’s Victorious with Ariana Grande, Thomas hid in the shadows, writing songs for other artists. However, he’s finally getting recognition for his own work, primarily for his 2024 album, Mutt, which is nominated for Album of the Year. Katseye also had a viral moment when their Gap Jeans advertisement, which challenged Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle controversy, took TikTok by storm.
Their choreography to Kelis’ “Milkshake” took over feeds, bringing the girl group to the forefront. The Marías have been active since 2016, but 2025 was a pretty big year for them in the mainstream. One of their big moments was being featured on Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco’s I Said I Love You Firsttrack “Ojos Tristes.”
Lastly, Sombr, who seemingly came out of nowhere last year, is up for the award too. The singer released I Barely Know Her in August 2025 and quickly became the name on everyone’s lips. He even got a shoutout from Taylor Swift and was recently seen carrying a loaf of sourdough gifted to him by the superstar.
Who Will Win & Why Things Will Look Different Than Last Year
With such a variety of artists up for the award, it’s hard to pinpoint who will take the trophy home. Last year’s choice felt way more predictable. Chappell Roan had one of the craziest breakout years the industry’s ever seen, so it felt inevitable she’d win.
However, this year, there isn’t one specific person who seems guaranteed to take it home. Though, there are still a few names that stand out among the others. In 2024, Victoria Monét, who had spent years writing for other artists, won the award, suggesting Leon Thomas could see the same fate. There’s also a chance the academy will go with the more mainstream choice of Addison Rae.
However, the award may very well go to Olivia Dean, who gained massive respect in the industry last year. It might take a real psychic to predict who the Grammys 2026 Best New Artist will be, but one thing’s for sure, it’s gonna be a tough competition this year.
